NFL Teaser Trends (Fav +Pts or Dog +Pts)

stanDAman · Jan 15, 2005

Many of you have talked about what is the best way to go as far as NFL teasets are concerned. Do you ADD points to the Favorite or the Dog? Many of you have stated that it is better to ADD point to the Dog instead of teasing the favorite down. Well I did some trend analysis using the results of the past 2 years. What I have found is that it is better to teast the favorite DOWN rather then add the points to the Dog. This is strictly going by %s. Here are my results:

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RANGE="A15..E15"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="LEFT" RANGE="A16..A17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="THICK" BORDER="LEFT" RANGE="B16..B17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="LEFT" RANGE="C16..C17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="LEFT" RANGE="D16..D17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="THICK" BORDER="LEFT" RANGE="E16..E17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="TOP" RANGE="A16..E16"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="TOP" RANGE="A17..E17"></LOTUS_BORDER><LOTUS_BORDER COLOR="#000000" BORDERSTYLE="SOLID" BORDER="TOP" RANGE="B18..E18"></LOTUS_BORDER><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=left bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=3 height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">OVERALL RECORDS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">W</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">L</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">DOG +6 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="337">337</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="167">167</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.668650793650794" FORMULA="1/(B4+C4)*B4">66.9%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">FAV +6 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="332">332</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="155">155</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.681724845995893" FORMULA="1/(B5+C5)*B5">68.2%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;2" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;2" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">DOG +6.5 pts </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="341">341</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="161">161</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.679282868525896" FORMULA="1/(B7+C7)*B7">67.9%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">FAV +6.5 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="353">353</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="153">153</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.697628458498024" FORMULA="1/(B8+C8)*B8">69.8%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">DOG +7 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="347">347</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="152">152</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.695390781563126" FORMULA="1/(B10+C10)*B10">69.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">FAV +7 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="355">355</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="143">143</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.71285140562249" FORMULA="1/(B11+C11)*B11">71.3%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">DOG +10 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="384">384</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="119">119</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.763419483101392" FORMULA="1/(B13+C13)*B13">76.3%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">FAV +10 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="392">392</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="92">92</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.809917355371901" FORMULA="1/(B14+C14)*B14">81.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=right width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="BLANK"> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">DOG +13 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="412">412</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="88">88</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.824" FORMULA="1/(B16+C16)*B16">82.4%</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left width=153 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="LABEL">FAV +13 pts</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="434">434</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=54 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_CELLTYPE="VALUE" LOTUS_VALUE="67">67</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle width=45 bgColor=#ffffff height=16 LOTUS_FORMAT="Percent;1" LOTUS_CELLTYPE="FORMULA" LOTUS_VALUE="0.86626746506986" FORMULA="1/(B17+C17)*B17">86.6%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see in all instances it is better to tease down the favorite. Now I'm not saying that is the best way to go ALL of the time but over the long run teasing the favorite down wins at a better %.

Use this info as you like. If anyone wants I can also provide % by the spread of the game, 1st 8 weeks, last 8 weeks, whatever combo you like. I have the data in a DB that I can query.

BTW. For whatever reason the best win % is teasing a -3.5 to -6.5 fav down. Not sure why that is but the #s don't lie.

DAman...

t3a · Jan 15, 2005

Are you only using regular season?

If you are teasing down a 3.5 to 6.5 chalk, it makes sense that win % would be higher because you are just needing a SU win or getting a FG. Teasing those big chalks down you can get burned by those 'meaningless' late scores that don't effect the outcome of the game.

Or maybe I am not understanding what you meant - is it 3.5-6.5 favs at all teaaser levels have the highest win?

stanDAman · Jan 15, 2005

What I mean is if the game favorite is between -3.5 and -6.5 and you tease the favorite down. For example, is the favorite is -5 and you play a +6 pt teaser so you tease it to a +1 that hits at a higher % then teasing the dog to +12 in that game. So if the favorite of the game is between -3.5 and -6.5 and you tease the favorite down that hits at a higher % then any other spread in a NFL game. Not sure why but it does. And yes, this is ONLY for the regular season for 2003 and 2004. There are some odd trends. For example, in the 1st 6 weeks of 2004 if you played a 13 pt teaser and added the 13 pts to the DOG you would have won 79 and lost 5. At Pinny, if you play a 13 pt teaser you need to play 3 teams. Still 79-5 is pretty good if you ask me. There are other trends but that one stood out.

stanDAman · Jan 15, 2005

BTW. I did my spread trends based on the following spreads:

Pick to -3, -3.5 to -6.5, -7 to -10, > -10

As stated, the best win% is teasing the favorite down if the spread of the game is -3.5 to -6.5. That wins more then any other spread and for all teasers +6,+6.5, +7, +10, +13.